The MPs who will and won't vote for Theresa May's Brexit deal on January 15

After more than a month trying to wrangle a better deal with the EU, the chances of it going through this time are still slim. Here's what we know.

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The Prime Minister faces a blow to her leadership if she fails to secure support for her Brexit draft deal

How will the Tories be voting?

As was the case in December, the majority of the Conservatives 315 MPs are expected to vote in favour of the Prime Minister’s draft Brexit deal, there will still be a considerable number voting against her.

Those set to rebel against their party leader will be doing so for a variety of reasons.

Hardline Brexiteers, including leading figures such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson, will almost certainly vote against the Government as they believe the agreement does not honour the referendum and leaves the UK too closely entwined with the EU.

Meanwhile Tory whip Gary Johnson's eleventh hour resignation has done nothing to stoke confidence in the embattled deal.

The controversial backstop arrangement in Northern Ireland is a particular point of concern.

As many as 100 Eurosceptic Tory MPs could vote down the deal on these grounds.

Equally, Tory MPs in favour of a close future relationship with the EU may also vote down the PM's proposals.

Conservatives such as Heidi Allen, a vocal supporter of another referendum, have stated they will not vote for the deal.

Other pro-EU rebels include former cabinet member Justine Greening and Dominic Grieve.

Among the most notable MPs likely to vote against the deal are:

  • Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • Boris Johnson
  • Dominic Raab
  • David Davis
  • Esther McVey
  • Dominic Raab
  • Gareth Johnson

How will Labour be voting?

Labour has said MPs will be voting against the PM's deal – and have argued their case for a "Brexit That Works For You", which means remaining in a customs union with the EU.

But while Jeremy Corbyn and the rest of the shadow cabinet are almost certain to vote against the deal, especially as they hope it could trigger the fall of the PM, not all backbenchers are certain to follow their lead.

MPs from pro-Brexit regions such as John Mann and Caroline Flint could vote for the deal to reflect the wishes of their Eurosceptic constituencies.

The vast majority of Labour MPs, 257 in total, though are expected to vote against the Brexit deal.

Notable exceptions include MPs Jim Fitzpatrick, John Mann, Kevin Barron and Frank Field.

How will the DUP be voting?

The DUP, critical partners for the PM's confidence and supply deal, have spoken out against the proposed deal and said they cannot support it in its current form.

That means even if the PM could count on complete party loyalty in the upcoming meaningful vote, she would still be four votes short of the number needed for a majority.

DUP leader Arlene Foster has warned that there is no way she will ever support the PM’s withdrawal agreement.

She has even hinted that she would rather see Jeremy Corbyn take power than risk betraying Brexit voters.

How will the SNP be voting?

Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed her SNP MPs will vote against Theresa May's Brexit deal.

The First Minister rejected claims her Westminster MPs could abstain on the vote in the House of Commons.

The SNP leader said it would be "deeply irresponsible" for any MPs to endorse the prime minister's agreement.

At PMQs following the announcement of an agreed text over Brexit, Ian Blackford, the SNP's leader in Westminster, made clear the party's opposition to the deal.

"Go back and negotiate, let's keep us in the single market and customs union," he told the PM.

Ms Sturgeon has also said the party cannot vote in favour of a deal which does not include Scotland staying inside the EU customs union and single market.

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