{"id":143913,"date":"2023-10-06T00:55:11","date_gmt":"2023-10-06T00:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/celebritywshow.com\/?p=143913"},"modified":"2023-10-06T00:55:11","modified_gmt":"2023-10-06T00:55:11","slug":"floating-turkeys-is-australia-spending-50bn-on-dud-ships","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/celebritywshow.com\/lifestyle\/floating-turkeys-is-australia-spending-50bn-on-dud-ships\/","title":{"rendered":"Floating \u2018turkeys\u2019: Is Australia spending $50bn on dud ships?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By <\/span>Matthew Knott<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Save articles for later<\/h3>\n

Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.<\/p>\n

Flanked by senior cabinet ministers, South Australia\u2019s premier and the country\u2019s top military leaders, Malcolm Turnbull looked ebullient as he proclaimed June 29, 2018, a \u201cgreat day for Australia\u2019s security\u201d.<\/p>\n

The then prime minister was at the Osborne naval shipyard to announce British defence firm BAE Systems the winner of a $35 billion contract to build a fleet of nine frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. It turned out to be one of Turnbull\u2019s last big announcements before being ejected from the Lodge.<\/p>\n

In an era of rising geostrategic tensions, Turnbull enthused that Australia was acquiring the \u201cmost advanced anti-submarine warships in the world\u201d. And not only that. The decades-long project would lay the foundation for a \u201ctruly sovereign national Australian shipbuilding industry\u201d, creating 4000 direct jobs in Adelaide (the home town, it just so happened, of then defence industry minister Christopher Pyne).<\/p>\n

Across the other side of the world, Theresa May was delighted that BAE Systems had fended off bids by rival Spanish and Italian firms to build what would be known as the Hunter-class frigate. The then British prime minister hailed the contract as a sign the United Kingdom could prosper in a post-Brexit world by partnering with nations like Australia.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Defence Minister Richard Marles will consider how many Hunter-class frigates to build when a major naval review is finished.<\/span><\/p>\n

Known as the Type 26, the 150-metre frigate would be fitted with an Australian radar and a state-of\u2013the-art American combat system. Digital illustrations of the gleaming, ultra-modern leviathan certainly looked impressive.<\/p>\n

However, from the very beginning, there were questions about the high level of risk involved. The British Navy was years away from completing construction on its first Type 26 frigate; adding Australian and US parts to the design would only add to the complexity.<\/p>\n

Two years after the announcement, the cost of the program was revised up by $10 billion to $45 billion. Soon after, Defence acknowledged that the project was running 18 months to two years behind schedule, with the first ship expected to enter service in the early 2030s rather than the late 2020s. Design changes saw the weight of the ship blow out from 8800 tonnes to about 10,000 tonnes.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you try to Australianise an already immature design, you\u2019re setting yourself up for serious problems and that\u2019s exactly what happened,\u201d says Richard Dunley, a naval historian at UNSW.<\/p>\n

\u2018I don\u2019t know anyone who thinks the Type 26 is the right ship for us to be buying.\u2019<\/p>\n

Beyond the navy\u2019s leadership and BAE\u2019s representatives, it is now hard to find fans of the Hunter-class frigate.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t know anyone who thinks the Type 26 is the right ship for us to be buying,\u201d says Hugh White, a former deputy secretary of the Department of Defence.<\/p>\n

Another prominent defence analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity because of work they do for the federal government, lambasts the ships as floating \u201cturkeys\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is heading down the pathway to be the worst shipbuilding project in the RAN\u2019s history,\u201d the analyst says.<\/p>\n

David Shackleton, who served as the chief of navy from 1999 to 2002, said in a major report for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute last year that the Hunter-class program was so fundamentally flawed that it should be scrapped.<\/p>\n

A scathing audit office report released in May found the final cost was likely to be \u201csignificantly higher\u201d than $45 billion. It also revealed that the Defence Department initially concluded that the Italian and Spanish designs were better options for Australia than BAE\u2019s Type 26 ship.<\/p>\n

The future of the program was expected to be resolved by the Albanese government\u2019s Defence Strategic Review, released in April. Instead, it recommended the government conduct a separate, short-and-sharp review into the nation\u2019s surface fleet.<\/p>\n

Defence Minister Richard Marles received the top-secret review, led by former United States Navy admiral William Hilarides, last week and says he is carefully considering its recommendations. The stakes are high: alongside the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarines, the surface ships Australia decides on will be the navy\u2019s primary combat power for the next 50 years. International companies, smelling money in the water, are circling with offers off cheaper, smaller ships.<\/p>\n

Among those highly critical of the Hunter-class frigates is Peter Dean, who served as a senior adviser to the Defence Strategic Review and its principal author.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat we have here is an over-engineered, over-specialised, anti-submarine warfare frigate that is no longer meeting the needs of the strategic environment,\u201d says Dean, foreign policy and defence director at the United States Studies Centre.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe question now has to be: are we not better off walking away and looking at other options that we can explore?\u201d<\/p>\n

Around the world, even more profound questions are being asked about the viability of large surface ships in an era of precision missiles, drones and sophisticated surveillance systems.<\/p>\n

\u2018The question now has to be: are we not better off walking away and looking at other options that we can explore?\u2019<\/p>\n

Named after the Russian capital, the Moskva was the pride of President Vladimir Putin\u2019s Black Sea Fleet. The 9000-tonne, 186-metre cruiser was seen as so significant, so formidable, that the Russian Orthodox Church handed over a Christian relic, believed to be a piece of the True Cross on which Jesus Christ was crucified, to grace the ship\u2019s chapel. The Moskva played an important role in Putin\u2019s invasion of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014, and was expected to do so again in the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Yet, last April Ukraine spectacularly shot down the Moskva using cheap, locally made Neptune cruise missiles launched from land near the port city of Odessa. It was the biggest ship to be sunk in combat since 1982 when the British navy famously downed the General Belgrano during the Falklands War.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Moskva, Russia\u2019s Black Sea flagship, was sunk by Ukraine last April in a major blow to national pride.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>AP<\/cite><\/p>\n

Retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis applauded the sinking as \u201cgut punch to the Russian military and the Kremlin\u201d, but added that it offers \u201ca stark reminder of the vulnerability of surface ships \u2014 including aircraft carriers, the heart of the US Navy \u2014 to relatively low-cost, numerous and technologically advanced cruise missiles\u201d.<\/p>\n

Stavridis said that, in the two decades since September 11, 2001 attacks, Western navies had \u201coperated with impunity, projecting power ashore at will because Afghans, Iraqis and Syrians did not have Neptune-style cruise missiles\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat won\u2019t be the case in great-power conflict,\u201d he wrote in Bloomberg Opinion<\/em>, alluding to a possible battle between the US and China, most likely in the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n

Andrew Davies, a senior Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst and former Defence official, says surface ships have always had major vulnerabilities. They are large and slow, their defensive systems can\u2019t be reloaded at sea and can only manoeuvre in two dimensions. Recent technological developments, he argues, have tipped the balance to render them virtually useless in war-fighting scenarios.<\/p>\n

Firstly, there are the rapid advances in radar and sonar technology \u2014 including from space satellites \u2014 that make ships far easier to detect. \u201cOnce a ship sailed over the horizon, it used to be invisible,\u201d he says. \u201cNow they can be easily detected at long ranges.\u201d At the same time, advances in precision-guided missiles are making them easier to sink. Adding to the threat matrix are attacks from drones and explosive uncrewed underwater vessels.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy argument has been for a very long time that surface ships have no serious place in Australian military strategy in any conflict with a capable maritime power,\u201d says White, the former Defence official.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019re so vulnerable, and there are so many other ways of doing everything that surface ships can do for you.\u201d<\/p>\n

Dean says: \u201cThere is a fundamental question about the long-term utility of very large surface vessels. It doesn\u2019t mean that their time has necessarily come and gone, but the mass proliferation of cheap and ubiquitous cruise missiles make them much more vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>\n

However, even the biggest sceptics accept that a vast island nation like Australia must have surface ships of some kind. As well as war-fighting, such vessels serve an important role in providing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to the wider region, as well as counter-piracy operations. The live question is, at cost of $5 billion each, whether the Hunter-class is the correct ship for Australia and whether nine are really necessary.<\/p>\n

++<\/p>\n

Ben Hudson, the chief executive of BAE Systems Australia, accepted that the Hunter-class project had hit choppy waters while appearing before a Senate committee in September.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, as one of the most complex and technologically demanding projects undertaken in Australia, challenges are to be expected,\u201d he said, pointing to delays caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

Stressing that the ship\u2019s primary role was anti-submarine warfare, Hudson said his company was committed to providing Australia with a \u201cformidable\u201d frigate whose capabilities are \u201ccurrently without peer\u201d.<\/p>\n

From the beginning, the biggest selling point of the Type 26 was its ability to hunt down and shoot enemy submarines.<\/p>\n

Rather than an advantage, White says this is the hole in the heart of the program.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs a wit once said, searching for a submarine with a surface ship is a bit like searching for a gas leak with a match,\u201d he quips. \u201cYou\u2019ll find the submarine, but only when the torpedo is in the water and heading towards you.\u201d<\/p>\n

You\u2019re far better off searching for submarines with aircraft or other submarines, he says.<\/p>\n

Michael Shoebridge, a former senior Defence Department official, says Australia\u2019s plan to acquire nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS pact has undermined the rationale for the Hunter-class program.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe primary purpose of a Virginia-class attack submarine is to kill other submarines,\u201d says Shoebridge. \u201cThat should free up the frigates to not be so focused on anti-submarine warfare.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The Hunter-class frigates will weigh three times as much as the current ANZAC-class frigates.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Reuters<\/cite><\/p>\n

White also criticises the ships\u2019 colossal heft, noting they will weigh three times as much as the current ANZAC-class frigates.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s the strategic rationale for this very significant step change?\u201d he asks. \u201cThe answer is: there is none.\u201d<\/p>\n

The most common complaint is that, despite their size, the frigates are not equipped to carry enough ammunition \u2014 a glaring flaw given Marles has made boosting the defence force\u2019s long-range strike capability his central goal as defence minister.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile other navies around the region are growing the number of missile cells they can put on surface combatants, we\u2019re going backwards,\u201d Dean says.<\/p>\n

In his Australian Strategic Policy Institute report, Shackleton argued: \u201cHaving only 32 missile cells, the Hunter frigate is fundamentally under-armed for almost any operation in which hostilities are to be expected … If the evolution of the Hunter design won\u2019t allow it to embark at least 96 cells, then its viability must be questioned.\u201d<\/p>\n

This problem of being under-gunned is not limited to frigates. The government is also building 12 offshore patrol vessels, known as the Arafura class, in Adelaide at a cost of $3.6 billion. The vessels have only meagre weaponary, limiting their ability to contribute to any high-end military scenarios.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think historians will judge that the rush to massive investments in major surface ships that took place under the Turnbull government, and which has been sustained by subsequent governments, was really all about building up jobs in South Australia,\u201d White says.<\/p>\n

++<\/p>\n

So what answers could the surface fleet review come up with? All experts acknowledge the government faces a fiendishly difficult problem with no easy solutions. \u201cThis is a very serious game of Tetris,\u201d Dean says.<\/p>\n

Marles has said the government would not respond to the review until next year, suggesting its recommendations are substantial, complicated or expensive (possibly a combination of all three).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Defence Minister Richard Marles says the government will not respond to the review until next year.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Alex Ellinghausen<\/cite><\/p>\n

\u201cWe will take the necessary time to consider this analysis to ensure we have an appropriately balanced surface fleet that contributes to a fully integrated and more capable Defence Force,\u201d he said after receiving the report last week.<\/p>\n

In the lead-up to the defence strategic review, there was a widespread expectation that the government would slash the order of Hunter-class frigates from nine to six to free up more money. That speculation continues, with naval historian Richard Dunley thinking it remains the most likely outcome.<\/p>\n

As flawed as the program is, Dunley says: \u201cThe fastest way to get capability is probably to stick with Hunter-class, which is why I suspect any cuts will come to the last three hulls.\u201d<\/p>\n

Michael Shoebridge thinks the government should be bolder and slash the number of frigates to three.<\/p>\n

Dean is no fan of either option because they would not release any money in the near term. \u201cIf you go from nine frigates to six \u2014 or even from nine down to three \u2014 the government won\u2019t get a single dollar back over the next 10 years,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Dean says the government has two feasible options. It could double-down on the Hunter-class program and seek money elsewhere in the budget to beef up the navy\u2019s firepower. Otherwise, it should abandon the program entirely, freeing up billions of dollars to spend on a mix of large and smaller ships. Among these could be a fleet of corvette-style ships that carry a similar amount of ammunition as frigates but at a lower cost.<\/p>\n

Marles hinted at such a move earlier this year by saying: \u201cThe Defence Strategic Review has observed that navies around the world are moving in the direction, to put it kind of crudely, of having a larger number of smaller vessels.\u201d<\/p>\n

German company Luerssen and Spanish company Navantia have both made energetic bids to provide the navy with alternatives to the Hunter-class. Meanwhile, defence expert and former naval officer Jennifer Parker this month pointed to the US Navy\u2019s 7000-tonne Constellation-class frigate as an appealing option.<\/p>\n

But cancelling or slashing the Hunter-class program would cause major offence to Australia\u2019s AUKUS partner, the United Kingdom. And with almost 1800 people already working on the project in Adelaide, any disruption to shipbuilding would draw domestic blowback.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is not a government with a good record of making tough decisions, and the decisions they face on the future of the surface are very tough because they\u2019ve inherited a massive, politically sensitive commitment to the surface ship program,\u201d White says.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m not surprised they\u2019re ducking and weaving.\u201d<\/p>\n

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. <\/b>Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.<\/b><\/em><\/p>\n

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